As events in Southern California unfolded Thursday, I was attending a security conference that included - coincidently - an incredibly insightful presentation by the FBI on the expanding phenomena of heavily armed shooters and suicide terrorists.
I became aware of the details driving to the airport Friday morning listeningto the satellite radio, and then catching glimpses on TVs in airport terminals as I made my way home. What struck me were the themes repeated by news people as they discussed the situation: "Military veteran . . . Trained Killer . . . Understands Police Tactics, Techniques and Procedures . . . TTPs . . . Guerrilla Warfare . . . Survivalist . . ."
OK let's look at this thing, take it down by the numbers:
1) Military veteran
Dorner is a Navy Reserve officer - but that could mean anything. Pictures of him posing with an M16A2 tells me he's NOT in a Special Operations unit - just because he's wearing camoflage and web gear equally means nothing. For all we know he was a logistics officer working in a secure compound in Baghdad.
2) Trained Killer
The media is falling back on their familiar theme: RAMBO a.k.a. the crazed psychotic veteran who's training has given him almost superhuman capabilities. Of course they go straight to this; they created this myth way back when in Seventies and never got away from it. Never mind that reality has never matched this fantasy - why let fact get in the way of a tried and true fiction that sells papers and enthralls the minds of the public?
3) Understands Police Tactics, Techniques and Procedures:
It is quite possible that Dorner is familiar with SWAT-type tactics used by police - but the battlefield he has chosen is way out in the open; not the urban environment that LAPD trains for. The concept of laying in ambush does not require a knowledge of police tactics. Equally, a knowledge of police tactics gives no distinct advantage in the mountainous terrain he now finds himself.
4) Guerrilla Warfare.
If Dorner was truly some kind of expert in guerrilla warfare the LAST thing he would have done is let everybody in the world know his identity right at the beginning of his killing spree. If he was truly an evil genius he would have initiated his war on the LAPD and never let them know who's after them.
5) Survivalist
The media throws this one out that like it's some sort of advantage that Dorner understands survival techniques. As a US Army Special Forces S.E.R.E instructor, I can speak from a position of knowledge and experience. If you have to rely upon survival and evasion training this represents last-ditch effort; you're already WAY behind the eight-ball and the best you can do is hedge your luck. The mountains in the wintertime is an extremely harsh environment; not a lot of food, but a lot of extreme weather conditions.
Dorner's opening act was to let everybody know who he was as he went about assassinating his percieved enemies - not not an effective technique for somebody wanting to conduct a one-man war. Right away everybody in the country knows what he looks like, and he's not exactly the "gray man".
Once he went dynamic, the next thing he did was run for the hills, then ditch his vehicle and make his way on foot in mountainous terrain. Dorner is no Eric Rudolph; he has no support structure up in the hills. An extremely recognizeable 270-pound black man is going to stick out in a ski resort like a - well, any analogy I make is going to be crude and tasteless but I think everybody knows what I mean.
If he was smart, Dorner would have remained anonymous as he racked up the bodies in a historic terror campaign. He would have maintained mobility between several cities, across several states, with standby vehicles to swap out, in parking lots without security camera scrutiny.
If he was smart, that is.
Dorner's actions are not the actions of a cold, calculating criminal genius. Instead, his actions are driven by emotions. Speaking of which, the man has apparently been an emotional basket case all his life. Dorner's manifest is replete with complaints of prejudicial treatment all his life; on school playgrounds, in his law enforcement training, in the Navy. His relationships with women over the last three years apparently all ended in legal actions. In the words of the former LAPD Chief William Bratton, "He (Dorner) could not achieve intimacy (with women)."
I have a hard time believing Dorner's claims about open use of the N-word to his face; but I'm quite sure he believes in his mind that people were talking to him that way. I'm quite certain that he believes that he heard the words.
Dorner is the equivalent of a frustrated kid throwing a tantrum - only in this case, the kid is a 270-pound fully-grown man, well-armed and dangerous.
Where It Goes From Here
Right now a massive manhunt is underway; local, state and federal law-enforcement agencies and quite probably National Guard forces have saturated the area. Tracking teams have fanned out from Dorner's last known location - the burned out truck. Every cabin, hut, outbuilding, highway underpass, bridge and culvert is being searched. Aviation assets with state-of-the-art thermal imaging equipment are flying search patterns.
In the meantime Dorner is getting colder and hungrier.
It's only a matter of time, and the only question is how many more lives will Dorner take, before they finally take him down, or he decides to take himself out, to deny them their kill. There is no question that, given the opportunity, they'le take him down; this thing has gone too far - at this point it's shoot first, ask questions later. I only hope they do a better job of target identification before they open fire the next time.
STORMBRINGER SENDS
He's had a year or more to prepare; a couple of pre-staged cars and a change of appearance would simple and obvious steps to take.
ReplyDeleteYeah - maybe just a bit of resume enhancement going on in our hysterical media.
ReplyDeletePersonally - I think he's already dead from either exposure or suicide. But we'll all just have to wait and see.
Love the analysis of the media analysis in all this. You *know* they are going, "Democrat? Frick....okay, don't mention that..." and otherwise they don't even want to be interested in this. Now if this was an NRA member....you know we'd be hearing all about it.
ReplyDeleteMultiple media sites already redacted all his Democrat knob-slobbing. Can't be undermining the anti-rightwing bias spew they excrete 24/7, can we?
ReplyDeleteAnd as to his "knows police tactics" dossier, a bit of a harsher reality check is in order. Dorner was a probationary officer with LAPD for two years, which included a leave-of-absence for a Naval Reserve deployment. He was evidently a problem child throughout his post-academy on-the-job history, pre- and post-deployment, and his hot flash about a superior's misconduct came about only AFTER said senior training officer told him, as he approached the end of his probationary period, that if he didn't step up his game, she was recommending his termination from the PD. Shortly after that, and some deep soul-searching, Dorner "remembered" she had used inappropriate force against a suspect several weeks prior, rather conveniently. The aftermath of that investigation led to his subsequent dismissal, and legal journey into upholding that dismissal at each step of review.
So Baby Huey's "extensive training in law enforcement techniques and tactics" amounts to being a bottom-quintile rookie already on a long slide out the door. It's still the LAPD, so he's better trained than Barney Fife, but as a rookie shuttled from division to division to try and find someone who could teach him how to do the job, and failing at each attempt, he's not exactly a 27th level Master Ninja. He never made if beyondbasic patrol, and clearly bungled that over and over.
His spree, to date, consists of the ambush of a volleyball coach and her fiance in their car, an aborted attempt and failure to boat-jack an 80 year old boat owner in San Diego, a drive by shooting of two police officers randomly encountered, and the abandonment of his vehicle in the mountains, immediately prior to a snowstorm.
He MAY have planned that last to draw off the heat, had another clean vehicle, and be laying low five states or counties away, and re-surface again when things cool down. That would demonstrate that his evident haphazard earlier antics were a deliberate false trail, which goes counter to all experience of based on his work experience, written screeds, and general life presentation, but it's still a bare possibility.
Or more hopefully, he may either be a room-temperature popsicle stiff and well preserved in the local forest; or he may have panicked, and wandered off somewhere and helpfully suck-started one of his firearms, and be in the same cold and well-preserved state, just minus some critical body parts and fluids.
The amazing thing to me is that even given the level of assclownery displayed thus far in his criminal career, he's nonetheless managed to tie up the resources of dozens of agencies and hundreds to thousands of police officers, 24/7 for multiple days, with no more mad skillz demonstrated than what we've come to expect from the usual suspects who decide to go out in a blaze of victims at the nearest gun-free zone. Dorner's difference is he wants a piece of The Man, and at least claims to be willing to take them on wholesale, and takes opportunity shots when presented with them.
He's evidently got a 5-star ego, a two-star skill set, and a one-star chance of anything other than a pine box. The attempted execution by cop of the suspected (and totally uninvolved bystander) vehicle in Torrance foretells the way the PD hereabouts is going to treat him unless he walks naked into another police agency's lobby and announces his surrender.
Personally, I'm hoping he's a popsicle discovered shortly somewhere above the snowline, as it would uncomplicate things rather quickly, and save court costs.
But he's undermining any illusions of police invincibility rather succinctly, in his own retarded little way.
Damn well put, Aesop.
ReplyDeleteDon't know about Baby Huey - but Dorner does indeed bear a strong resemblance to a roided-up Barry Bonds. Giant head and all...
ReplyDelete/war on steroids!
All rhetoric put aside, Dorner proved his point. He proved how incompetent, vicious and and unprofessional the LA Police department is. To talk about coulda, shoulda, woulda is a moot point. We all know what he did was wrong. We all know that taking the law in our own hands is not society's norm, however, he has done what many of us secretly wish we could do what he did under his circumstance but do not have the balls to carry out, and that is, to make a serious point at the cost of our own lives. He will die, he has no way out, but he proved is point. He is not a coward and the LA Police is incompetent, unprofessional and appears the be lawless in the way they shoot innocent people trying to arrest or kill him.
ReplyDeleteI believe many of you writing your comments on Dorner fail to see the writing on the wall and that is there will be many more Dorners and many more incidents like this, period.
ReplyDeleteAn excelently reasoned piece. Far better than the tripe being peddled on the media, or the web. I will post a link to this on The Old Dog Barks, and on FB, which seems to have become just one more giant manure spreader. Disseminate common sense, not BS.
ReplyDeleteWhy doesn't Obama order a couple of Drones up.
ReplyDeleteHell, according to the Big "O" it's legal to kill Americans as long as they pose an "imminent" threat.
And he does!
Looks like someone heard ya, TJ.
ReplyDeleteWell...like typical b-cats the LAPD has re-opened his dismissal case, which is based on a false accusation vs. a female training partner. He claims she kicked a homeless man. Meanwhile LAPD's finest have shot up two small pickups that remotely resemble one that he was seen driving, in that they were....small and "dark". The first being driven by two females delivering papers and the second by a white surfer dude. Some media outlets have edited his screed as to indict themselves...figures.
ReplyDeletesorry last line should have a "not" between the "to" and "indict".
Deletelifted straight from AOS as he had the best summary:
ReplyDeletealso note LaRue's new policy at the bottom:
"Speaking of the manhunt, we appear to be in a race as to whether Dorner will kill more innocent people than the officers trying to find him.
Attorney Glen Jonas said Maggie Carranza, 47, and her mother, 71-year-old Emma Hernandez, were delivering Los Angeles Times newspapers around 5:15 a.m. in Torrance when the officers opened fire on their vehicle.
Jonas said, "There was no warning. There were no orders. No commands. Just gunshots."
But wait, there's more:
David Perdue was on his way to sneak in some surfing before work Thursday morning when police flagged him down. They asked who he was and where he was headed, then sent him on his way.
Seconds later, Perdue's attorney said, a Torrance police cruiser slammed into his pickup and officers opened fire; none of the bullets struck Perdue.
None of these people even remotely match the description of the suspect. The only common thread is that they were all driving trucks. So it sure is blindingly obvious that only law enforcement personnel have the requisite training and skills to responsibly own firearms.
The only saving grace in these stories is that trigger-happy cops are apparently very bad shots.
Fighting Fire With Fire
With the above in mind, every gun manufacturer should do what LaRue Tactical just did (emphasis added):
NEWS RELEASE: 02/08/2013 LEANDER, TX.
Updated Policy for State and Local Agency Law Enforcement Sales:
Due to the recent and numerous new Anti-gun/Anti-2nd Amendment laws passed and/or pending across our country, LaRue Tactical has been forced to reconsider how we provide products to state and local agencies.
Effective today, in an effort to see that no legal mistakes are made by LaRue Tactical and/or its employees, we will apply all current State and Local Laws (as applied to civilians) to state and local law enforcement / government agencies. In other words, LaRue Tactical will limit all sales to what law-abiding citizens residing in their districts can purchase or possess.
State and local laws have always been a serious focus of this firm, and we are now dovetailing that focus with the constitutional rights of the residents covered in their different areas by the old and new regulations.
We realize this effort will have an impact on this firm’s sales – and have decided the lost sales are less danger to this firm than potential lawsuits from erroneous shipments generated by something as simple as human error.
Thanks in advance for your understanding.
Mark LaRue
* * This policy does not apply to Military / Federal Agencies * *
Well done."
Good work, LaRue... Ronnie Barrett (http://www.thegunzone.com/shot/barrett.html) did much the same thing a little more than ten years ago.
DeleteThere are back roads, way back roads off that mountain that will take you into the upper desert above Yucca Valley and that area. It is a place to get lost in and with a little preparation a determined person could stay lost as long as they wish. He certainly has had time to plan and prepare. I think the LAPD has a right to be concerned and if I lived in LA and drove a small pickup I'd park it and take the bus.
ReplyDeleteMaxx
Yes, for some reason, it's apparently difficult to see tracks covered by 6 inches of freshly fallen snow. Who knew?
ReplyDeletePerhaps you could lend them the use of your thermal x-ray vision.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNnAvTTaJjM
ReplyDeleteNice tutorial! I gave it a thumb up.
ReplyDeleteWholesale Army Navy